Feb 10 Seed List

There are a few major changes to the seed list after one of the best 4 days stretches of the season. Kansas, North Carolina, and Michigan State all picked up massive wins. And plenty of other teams have made great strides to keep themselves alive on the bubble.

Here is my updated Seed List of February 10th. (Through games played Feb 9th)

*Teams in red are the 4 teams playing in the 16 seed play-in games*

Floors and Ceilings Feb 5: Power 5

As we approach Selection Sunday, fans of every team will want to hear their names called. And every conference will hope to send as many teams as possible. Some conferences will secure their lone automatic qualifier, while others will push for ten or more bids. 

As of today, here's how I see each of the Power 5 leagues in terms of the maximum and minimum number of bids they can achieve in this year's NCAA tournament. 

*Disclaimer: this does not include bids being stolen in any conference and only includes teams that are currently at large contenders.*

ACC: 6-10

I considered having nine as the maximum because the bubble teams in this conference will end up beating each other or fading deeper on the bubble due to other teams having better resumes.  As things stand, though, Duke, Virginia, UNC, Louisville, SMU, and NC State are all on track to make it. There's a host of teams right on the bubble that could be in, and if things go right for all 4 the ACC could bounce back after a down year and push for double-digit berths. As of today, the league, in my eyes, stands at 8 with Miami and Virginia Tech making it as well. I predict seven ACC teams make the field as of today. 

Big Ten: 9-11

The Big Ten has a very small gap in terms of floor and ceiling for NCAA tournament bids. There will be no surprises from teams deep on the bubble, like we could see in the ACC. At this point in the season, they have seven teams with a strong chance to make it. The other four all sit on the bubble. Teams like Ohio State and Indiana still have a lot of work to do to bolster their resumes, and could definitely slide out of the field. I'd expect to see ten Big Ten make the NCAA tournament. 

Big East: 3-5

I might be biased in this league because my favorite team, Xavier, plays in this conference, but I'm still holding out hope we'll see a late push from Butler or Creighton to make things interesting. In reality, we are dangerously close to the Big East only having three teams get at-large bids in what would be a big disappointment for the league as a whole. Seton Hall is a fun and scrappy team, and them being the fourth team would be a lot of fun, but it's growing increasingly unlikely as they remain wildly inconsistent. St John's, UConn, and Villanova are all inn and the conference needs Seton Hall to keep winning. I'm gonna guess four and pray the Pirates keep playing good ball. 

Big 12: 7-9

This is probably the number I struggled with the most. I really believe this conference is going to end with seven teams in the field. But in order to have some fun and keep the spirit of how crazy college basketball can be, I pushed the ceiling to nine. Teams like West Virginia and Baylor are deep on the bubble at this point in the season, but a long win streak in February can put you right back into contention. Baylor just won their first game in what feels like forever in Morgantown against WVU and followed up by dominating Colorado at home. Maybe that will inspire confidence in what is certainly a talented team. Oklahoma State is also a wild card as they have the best chance to be team number eight, and just won against BYU at home to secure their biggest win of the season. This helps a lot, but they'll need more. My guess is seven, but I'd prefer the chaos scenario of nine.

SEC: 9-11

Fresh off sending 14 teams to the NCAA, which is ridiculous by the way, the SEC faces a real possibility of only sending nine teams. In what has been a down year for so many SEC teams, it's no surprise the number of bids is going to be significantly lower. Ole Miss, Mississippi St, and Missouri are the main three examples of teams that are on the outside looking in that made the tournament in 2025. There is still a possibility that if everything goes correctly and the right teams, Texas and Missouri, keep winning games, the SEC can push for double-digit bids again. Unfortunately for them, that feels unlikely, especially for the Tigers, who have much more work to do. Putting my dislike for Sean Miller aside, I do think Texas is good enough to make the tournament, and the SEC will get ten teams. 

January 31st Seed List

 January 31st Seed List

Conference play rolls on, and we have a clearer picture of what the NCAA tournament will look like. Teams are starting to make their caseas to  whether they belong in the NCAA tournament 

Here's my latest seed list based on games played through January 29th:

Things will change on the next list as games from the weekend will impact it.